Update on Mockus (II)

Finally, presidential elections in Colombia will take place next Sunday the 30th. I have discussed it here and here. According to polls, two candidates still have options for winning the elections: decent, independent Antanas Mockus and the despicable human being Juan Manuel Santos (you might like to read a profile of all the candidates). Mockus managed to have a considerable advantage in polls, but then Santos "re-engineered" his campaign, a process that included hiring a Venezuelan expert in black propaganda. Also, Mockus made a number of mistakes in public events, making unfortunate/confusing statements about crucial issues. Such mishaps were effectively exploited by Santos campaign, I think.

As a result of both things, Mockus and Santos are now (almost) tied in polls (35% vs. 34%), and the final outcome is quite uncertain, essentially because it is known that polls reflect well the situation in middle/large cities, but not that in small cities and the countryside. In fact, in places away from the cities, the so-called electoral machinery --the network of corruption that is able to buy votes and carry out frauds in final results-- is known to be rather effective. This would benefit Santos and candidates from traditional parties but not Mockus. Another element of uncertainty is given by the very young people who are expected to vote for the first time. (In Colombia you can vote once you're 18; vote is not mandatory.) Most of them would support Mockus, but it cannot be taken for granted that they all will actually go to vote at the end, as this is the most skeptical segment of the population able to vote.

The most probable situation is that Mockus and Santos will go into a second round on 20 June. Polls indicate that while Santos would win the first round, Mockus would win the second one. Let's see how it goes.