So, let's say the guy is dead: now what?

It seems my Colombian fellows are in a strange state of shock/happiness/confusion regarding the unconfirmed death of Manuel Marulanda a.k.a. Tirofijo (something like "sure shot"), the creator and highest leader of FARC.
Once again, I am afraid I will have to express my skepticism regarding the whole thing. Let me examine the facts, and then draw a conclusion.

First of all, in the tradition of the Uribe administration, there is no press release, nor official statement announcing the news. The "news" arose as part of an interview the Minister of Defense gave to Semana, the weekly Colombian political journal which, for what it's what worth, I regard as a serious and objective publication. The interview was conducted by Maria Isabel Rueda, a journalist who is popular because of her strong positions in favor of the Uribe administration and his policies. She has a weekly column in Semana, and trust me, she could be very annoying defending the government. That was a first point against the interview, because it gives you the idea that the "interview" is just a part of a plan between the Minister and the journalist who's friend of the government.

Second, let's analyze what it's said in the interview. The Minister says he has "strong evidence" Marulanda is dead, but that he has no confirmed information about that. It is merit of the journalist to make the "big announcement" of the supposed death of the guerrilla leader. More precisely, one can read the following:

Rueda.: ¿Is'Tirofijo' dead?
Minister: That's the latest information we have and we're working on confirming it.

Rueda: ¿Can I put as headline of this interview, ''Tirofijo' is dead'?
Minister: It's up to you.

As you can see, very surprisingly, the Minister is rather prudent on his claims on Tirofijo (btw, the minister has a long story of invented stories about the operational results of the Colombian army.) It is the journalist who takes the risk of creating the news.

The above two points are to justify my skepticism about the news. There is no official announcement, there are no evidences and the government says it clearly. So, it would be a mistake to take such a thing as a certain fact. The rest is bullshit.

Now, let's say the guy is really dead (or, suppose, the government finds, all of the sudden, evidence of the guy's death.) Tirofijo being dead is quite possible because the guy is old and apparently had/has cancer. My position is: nothing really will change in the Colombian conflict. Of course, lots of articles will be written, and time in TV will be wasted on that. Recall that this is not the first time someone says Marulanda is dead (for different reasons, including cancer and a stroke, for instance), and everytime some else has been there to deny the fact. Independent of that, my impression is that Marulanda is/was too smart to know he was close to death and I am sure he did suitable arrangements for that moment. I am sure his successor has/had been elected already and that all the "machinery" of the guerrilla management part has been prepared. Moreover, I am sure his successor --as it usually occurs-- is way worse than the original Marulanda. So we shouldn't expect a huge, positive change. Could be this claimed as a victory of the government? Hardly, I'd say. I guess they didn't kill the guy, and therefore they don't have bloody, disgusting images of the old guy. Hence, they can do not have a psychological weapon for those poor guerrilla soldiers (mos of them kids) who are doubting about fighting a futureless war. Also, in case you were wondering, I guess remaining leaders of FARC are not that stupid so to kill among themselves to get control of the organization.

All in all, I see this as another masterpiece on how to deviate the national attention from other Colombian problems, such as the lack of credibility of the congress (many senators are in jail or are close to go there) and the fishy maneuvers the government did to get Uribe's second term approved.

Update (25/05/2008, 10am): I just read the Ministry of Defense released a statement "confirming" the "news". The facts are the same: Tirofijo might have died because of some bombing in Meta (south of Bogota) or by natural causes, and the government has no further evidence. That is, they're creating a victory by putting some unconfirmed small facts in some press release. The only new thing is that the government challenges FARC to prove Tirjofijo is indeed alive. The press statement was read by some Admiral Moreno that no one knows. I say: if the news is confirmed, and it's so important, why some unknown Admiral is announcing it to the world? Where are the Minister and the President?

Update (25/05/2008, 5:50pm): The FARC have admitted Tirofijo is dead. The uncertainty lasted much less than I expected. The new FARC leader is Alias Alfonso Cano.